Navigating Tomorrow: DIAL Ventures' Agrifood Sentiment Survey

When surveying an entire industry, it is beneficial to break down the industry into different segments.

By Owen Jerome Zakrzewski and Lourival Monaco

Abraham Lincoln notably said, “With public sentiment, nothing can fail. Without it, nothing can succeed.” Capturing sentiment is a difficult task, however, if done correctly and accurately it has the ability to transform and advance the topic in question. The topic varies from one industry to the next. However, the type of information being captured remains the same. How do people feel? Industries conducting sentiment surveys aim to capture the respondents’ emotions and perceptions. Thus, giving it the name, sentiment survey. A sentiment survey, when executed with precision, can capture industry professionals’ perceptions, and through the lens of expert researchers, can enable informative publications that provide current and future information. These can grant business leaders the opportunity to position themselves to capitalize on different possible future outcomes. Why should you care? Before answering, let's dive a little deeper into what a sentiment survey is.

Sentiment surveys capture a group of individuals’ perceptions about a certain topic. Answers are based on experience, industry knowledge, and emotions. Responses can be categorized into three groups. 1) positive perceptions 2) unchanged perceptions and 3) negative perceptions. Questions may vary from current to future perspectives, allowing for informative assessments to imply how professionals currently feel and what they expect to happen in the future for the industry. When surveying an entire industry, it is beneficial to break down the industry into different segments. Survey respondents are placed into varying segments based on their type of business activity. This breakdown of the industry allows for a more informative analysis to be created. This analysis can then be turned into reports informing business leaders how their segments believe to be doing in comparison to the industry. Additionally, there can be cross-segment comparisons for current and future industry outlooks.

Industry sentiment surveys are often distributed multiple times a year to achieve comparative analyses. What does this achieve? Let’s use a quick example of a peanut butter sandwich. It is like eating a peanut butter sandwich once a month and trying to capture the amount of satisfaction it brings to you every time. If you’re hungry you’ll be more satisfied; if you eat the sandwich after a splendid Thanksgiving dinner, you’ll be less satisfied. In this scenario, your hunger is what a sentiment survey aims to capture. Looking into the Agrifood system industry, we see a fitting example between 2022 and 2023 operating years. In 2022 the Agrifood system had a good year, from above average grain marketing prices, partially due to conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, to retailers having little issues with product procurement, compared to 2021 supply chain and logistic issues, even to product manufacturers having a great year, looking at fertilizer manufactures having high global demand as Europe had a shortage of natural gas, the main ingredient in synthetic fertilizer. Compare that to 2023.

Another important aspect that needs to be taken into consideration when you are dealing with people's sentiment about an industry is seasonality. In the Agrifood industry, this variable is extremely important and can skew how people think and feel about their businesses, segments, and industry as a whole. To account for that some form of a baseline has to be created. The results would than be compared to this baseline, for a true measurement of how things are evolving.

Let’s look at a couple sentiment surveys that already exist, like The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Survey and Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture’s (CCA) Ag Economy Barometer. The project conducted by the University of Michigan's Survey Research Center aims to comprehensively understand and predict shifts in the national economy, particularly focusing on consumer spending and saving decisions. These surveys assess consumer expectations regarding personal and general economic prospects in the short and long term. The Index of Consumer Expectations, derived from these surveys, is recognized as a reliable predictor of the national economy's future direction and is integrated into the Leading Indicator Composite Index published by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Proven valuable in anticipating changes in various economic indicators, their surveys contribute to accurate forecasts and insights into how consumer expectations drive economic behavior, aiding policymakers, analysts, and researchers in making informed decisions and assessments related to economic trends.

The Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture’s (CCA) Ag Economy Barometer is a collaborative initiative between Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture and the CME Group. It is designed to offer a monthly, nationwide assessment of the U.S. agricultural commodity economy. It serves as a comprehensive indicator by surveying both agricultural producers and agribusiness leaders. The barometer assesses economic sentiment monthly, considering current conditions and future expectations related to key economic drivers like farm profitability, farmland values, and commodity prices. CME Group's involvement underscores the barometer's role as a risk management tool, offering financial instruments to help industry participants navigate agricultural risks. The barometer's values, calculated from a survey of 400 producers, are interpreted relative to a base period (October 2015 to March 2016), with values above 100 indicating increased sentiment and below 100 signaling a decline, providing valuable insights for producers, economists, traders, and finance professionals.

These insights come multifaceted; as a risk management tool, the barometer aids in navigating agricultural volatility, and quarterly surveys involving agribusiness leaders contribute additional perspectives. Its accessibility on the Bloomberg Terminal and regular releases facilitate market insights, while its ties to Purdue University promote educational and research purposes. Policymakers leverage the barometer's findings for informed decision-making, making it a comprehensive resource for stakeholders ranging from producers and investors to researchers and policymakers. With high-valued information derived from agricultural industry perspective data, why aren’t more agricultural industry sentiment surveys being created?

Enter DIAL Ventures. DIAL is a venture studio, focused on the creation of digital startups for the agri-food industry. It has ideated, funded, and launched 3 successful companies in the last 2 years. DIAL, through its research arm, acts as a bridge between industry knowledge and academic research. Additionally, in our research efforts, we have created an Agrifood-specific sentiment survey: the Agrifood Economy Index. It is designed to provide industry professionals with sentiment about the industry’s economic situation. The survey collects the feelings/opinions from industry professionals and decision-makers and transforms the information into quantifiable data. Participants are industry leaders in the agricultural food industry within one of the following six segments of this value chain: a) Ag input Manufacturers b) Ag input distribution c) Ag production d) Ag product processing and handling e) Food processing/ manufacturing and f) Support services and products. Each survey respondent receives a survey containing the following 5 core questions,

  1. We are interested in how companies in the agrifood system are getting along financially. Would you say that your company/operation today is financially better off, worse off, or about the same compared to a year ago?
  2. Now, looking ahead, do you think that a year from now, your company/operation will be better off financially, worse off, or just about the same as now?
  3. Turning to the segment of the value chain you consider your company/operation to be a part of, do you think that during the next twelve months, there will be good times financially, bad times, or just about the same as now?
  4. Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: the segment of the value chain you consider your company/operation to be a part of, during the next five years will have widespread good times, widespread bad times, or just about the same as now?
  5. Thinking about large investments for your company/operation (acquiring machinery, land, buildings, other companies, etc.), generally speaking, do you think now is a good time or bad time to make such investments?

The first six surveys will establish the baseline, with the first survey executed in October 2023. Each survey administered following the first 6 will be compared to the baseline creating an index value to understand each segment’s perceptions of the industry, currently and where it is headed. Then, what makes this so important?

Importance can be derived from what the survey has to offer. The Agrifood Economy Index allows for the Agrifood sector to gain a perspective from all players within the industry. Offering businesses within the industry to strategically position themselves to navigate the market moving forward. As business leaders, the informative pieces DIAL reports from the survey will allow decision-makers to understand how the industry believes to be doing currently, along with where they believe the industry is going. Broken down by segments, comparative data allows for differences between segments to be found. More importantly, to discover what the reasons are behind the differences. Discovering the reasoning for these differences provides informational insights businesses can leverage to develop short and long-term strategies, allowing you, an industry leader, to create multiple future business plans to capitalize on different possible outlooks.

DIAL, in collaboration with Purdue University researchers and extensive connections in the agri-food industry, has a unique opportunity to develop meaningful publications based on survey insights. Your valuable participation will shape these publications, and, as President Lincoln emphasized, public sentiment is key to prosperity. Therefore, we invite you—participants, industry experts, and professionals—to contribute your time to gather revolutionary data for the agri-food industry. Be a part of initiating much-needed meaningful perception data for the agricultural-food industry.

Will you take the first steps in advancing the industry with us?

By Owen Jerome Zakrzewski and Lourival Monaco

Abraham Lincoln notably said, “With public sentiment, nothing can fail. Without it, nothing can succeed.” Capturing sentiment is a difficult task, however, if done correctly and accurately it has the ability to transform and advance the topic in question. The topic varies from one industry to the next. However, the type of information being captured remains the same. How do people feel? Industries conducting sentiment surveys aim to capture the respondents’ emotions and perceptions. Thus, giving it the name, sentiment survey. A sentiment survey, when executed with precision, can capture industry professionals’ perceptions, and through the lens of expert researchers, can enable informative publications that provide current and future information. These can grant business leaders the opportunity to position themselves to capitalize on different possible future outcomes. Why should you care? Before answering, let's dive a little deeper into what a sentiment survey is.

Sentiment surveys capture a group of individuals’ perceptions about a certain topic. Answers are based on experience, industry knowledge, and emotions. Responses can be categorized into three groups. 1) positive perceptions 2) unchanged perceptions and 3) negative perceptions. Questions may vary from current to future perspectives, allowing for informative assessments to imply how professionals currently feel and what they expect to happen in the future for the industry. When surveying an entire industry, it is beneficial to break down the industry into different segments. Survey respondents are placed into varying segments based on their type of business activity. This breakdown of the industry allows for a more informative analysis to be created. This analysis can then be turned into reports informing business leaders how their segments believe to be doing in comparison to the industry. Additionally, there can be cross-segment comparisons for current and future industry outlooks.

Industry sentiment surveys are often distributed multiple times a year to achieve comparative analyses. What does this achieve? Let’s use a quick example of a peanut butter sandwich. It is like eating a peanut butter sandwich once a month and trying to capture the amount of satisfaction it brings to you every time. If you’re hungry you’ll be more satisfied; if you eat the sandwich after a splendid Thanksgiving dinner, you’ll be less satisfied. In this scenario, your hunger is what a sentiment survey aims to capture. Looking into the Agrifood system industry, we see a fitting example between 2022 and 2023 operating years. In 2022 the Agrifood system had a good year, from above average grain marketing prices, partially due to conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, to retailers having little issues with product procurement, compared to 2021 supply chain and logistic issues, even to product manufacturers having a great year, looking at fertilizer manufactures having high global demand as Europe had a shortage of natural gas, the main ingredient in synthetic fertilizer. Compare that to 2023.

Another important aspect that needs to be taken into consideration when you are dealing with people's sentiment about an industry is seasonality. In the Agrifood industry, this variable is extremely important and can skew how people think and feel about their businesses, segments, and industry as a whole. To account for that some form of a baseline has to be created. The results would than be compared to this baseline, for a true measurement of how things are evolving.

Let’s look at a couple sentiment surveys that already exist, like The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Survey and Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture’s (CCA) Ag Economy Barometer. The project conducted by the University of Michigan's Survey Research Center aims to comprehensively understand and predict shifts in the national economy, particularly focusing on consumer spending and saving decisions. These surveys assess consumer expectations regarding personal and general economic prospects in the short and long term. The Index of Consumer Expectations, derived from these surveys, is recognized as a reliable predictor of the national economy's future direction and is integrated into the Leading Indicator Composite Index published by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Proven valuable in anticipating changes in various economic indicators, their surveys contribute to accurate forecasts and insights into how consumer expectations drive economic behavior, aiding policymakers, analysts, and researchers in making informed decisions and assessments related to economic trends.

The Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture’s (CCA) Ag Economy Barometer is a collaborative initiative between Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture and the CME Group. It is designed to offer a monthly, nationwide assessment of the U.S. agricultural commodity economy. It serves as a comprehensive indicator by surveying both agricultural producers and agribusiness leaders. The barometer assesses economic sentiment monthly, considering current conditions and future expectations related to key economic drivers like farm profitability, farmland values, and commodity prices. CME Group's involvement underscores the barometer's role as a risk management tool, offering financial instruments to help industry participants navigate agricultural risks. The barometer's values, calculated from a survey of 400 producers, are interpreted relative to a base period (October 2015 to March 2016), with values above 100 indicating increased sentiment and below 100 signaling a decline, providing valuable insights for producers, economists, traders, and finance professionals.

These insights come multifaceted; as a risk management tool, the barometer aids in navigating agricultural volatility, and quarterly surveys involving agribusiness leaders contribute additional perspectives. Its accessibility on the Bloomberg Terminal and regular releases facilitate market insights, while its ties to Purdue University promote educational and research purposes. Policymakers leverage the barometer's findings for informed decision-making, making it a comprehensive resource for stakeholders ranging from producers and investors to researchers and policymakers. With high-valued information derived from agricultural industry perspective data, why aren’t more agricultural industry sentiment surveys being created?

Enter DIAL Ventures. DIAL is a venture studio, focused on the creation of digital startups for the agri-food industry. It has ideated, funded, and launched 3 successful companies in the last 2 years. DIAL, through its research arm, acts as a bridge between industry knowledge and academic research. Additionally, in our research efforts, we have created an Agrifood-specific sentiment survey: the Agrifood Economy Index. It is designed to provide industry professionals with sentiment about the industry’s economic situation. The survey collects the feelings/opinions from industry professionals and decision-makers and transforms the information into quantifiable data. Participants are industry leaders in the agricultural food industry within one of the following six segments of this value chain: a) Ag input Manufacturers b) Ag input distribution c) Ag production d) Ag product processing and handling e) Food processing/ manufacturing and f) Support services and products. Each survey respondent receives a survey containing the following 5 core questions,

  1. We are interested in how companies in the agrifood system are getting along financially. Would you say that your company/operation today is financially better off, worse off, or about the same compared to a year ago?
  2. Now, looking ahead, do you think that a year from now, your company/operation will be better off financially, worse off, or just about the same as now?
  3. Turning to the segment of the value chain you consider your company/operation to be a part of, do you think that during the next twelve months, there will be good times financially, bad times, or just about the same as now?
  4. Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: the segment of the value chain you consider your company/operation to be a part of, during the next five years will have widespread good times, widespread bad times, or just about the same as now?
  5. Thinking about large investments for your company/operation (acquiring machinery, land, buildings, other companies, etc.), generally speaking, do you think now is a good time or bad time to make such investments?

The first six surveys will establish the baseline, with the first survey executed in October 2023. Each survey administered following the first 6 will be compared to the baseline creating an index value to understand each segment’s perceptions of the industry, currently and where it is headed. Then, what makes this so important?

Importance can be derived from what the survey has to offer. The Agrifood Economy Index allows for the Agrifood sector to gain a perspective from all players within the industry. Offering businesses within the industry to strategically position themselves to navigate the market moving forward. As business leaders, the informative pieces DIAL reports from the survey will allow decision-makers to understand how the industry believes to be doing currently, along with where they believe the industry is going. Broken down by segments, comparative data allows for differences between segments to be found. More importantly, to discover what the reasons are behind the differences. Discovering the reasoning for these differences provides informational insights businesses can leverage to develop short and long-term strategies, allowing you, an industry leader, to create multiple future business plans to capitalize on different possible outlooks.

DIAL, in collaboration with Purdue University researchers and extensive connections in the agri-food industry, has a unique opportunity to develop meaningful publications based on survey insights. Your valuable participation will shape these publications, and, as President Lincoln emphasized, public sentiment is key to prosperity. Therefore, we invite you—participants, industry experts, and professionals—to contribute your time to gather revolutionary data for the agri-food industry. Be a part of initiating much-needed meaningful perception data for the agricultural-food industry.

Will you take the first steps in advancing the industry with us?